Simmons says Peak is here

Matthew Simmons, the Chairman of Simmons Co. International was interviewed by Bloomberg News. He laid his cards down folks. He says Peak is here, Bush's proposals are probably unreachable, and we don't have the resources to seriously drill for new oil off the continental shelf. The rigs are old. You will probably have to scroll down, if I find a transcript I will post it.

Keep this in mind, his company has been in business since 1974 and is the largest independent investment bank for the oil service industry. He is not about to shoot his mouth off and risk losing business.

More later.

ETA 9:43
Over at The Oil Drum there is a discussion about the interview and whether Simmons is credible. My $.02 for whatever it may be worth;

Jeffrey Brown, posting as westexas makes a very important point:

I think what really got people's attention is that both Saudi Arabia and Mexico are eliminating and/or reducing crude oil deliveries to refineries. Notwithstanding the fact that Pemex reported a rebound in January, the more important fact is that they cancelled 100% of crude oil deliveries for 2007 to the Gulf Coast refinery that they jointly own.

It is precisely that kind of anomalous behavior that makes me believe that Simmons is not trying to pull our collective leg or generate revenue (or not) for his company. Even Robert Rapier guesses we may have 3 more years. I would say that if Simmons is wrong, he may have missed by about 5 years tops, based on the conversation. If you forego the discussion over at the Drum at least read this post regarding the manufacture and staffing of drilling rings. We have a brain drain to contend with in finding and developing new fields.

My bottom line - this is not an academic discussion. We are effectively out of time to prepare. This doesn't mean rolling over and kicking our feet up, we can still do what we can. But we need to recognize that the potential for economic disruption exists and we will all feel it. The folks fussing over parking, permits or not, will find that the cost of operating a vehicle is about to become very expensive in a few years. I'd be willing to bet that parking will be less of an issue then.