A lot went on in the Peak Oil world over the past week, and not just the price rise. From what I have read, we are definitely on the plateau. We may see some small peaks, but that won't change the ultimate direction we are headed in.
Matt Simmons on CNBC talking about the cost of oil. Would you pay $8/gallon like they do in Europe?
Will you listen to the OPEC guys who tell us that world reserves are overstated and that by 2030 production will be around 75 mpd? And with even more detail on the quotes. Even more about the reserve issue. How about the chief of Total?
By the way, lest we forget, the real impact of Peal Oil will not be on cars. Oh no. It's all about the trucks we rely on to move products. We can get on the CTA, assuming it's working. How do you plan on shipping the food, furniture, clothing, etc. that we consume every day?
The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly in Fort McMurray in Alberta. Pay attention to the environmental impact and ask yourself how long Canada can afford to spend natural gas and water (which can't be recycled into nature) on this effort. Consider too the human toll. All this to fuel the status quo. And we may not have it for long according to Chris Skrebowski. In fact, things could be much worse;
Julian Darley: You've recently been re-examining some of the oil field mega-projects work, I believe, and you've noticed something about 2010 and thereafter.
Chris Skrebowski: Yes indeed. The oil business is pretty slow-moving, which is why you can do any of this sort of analysis at all. Now, at the moment, the approximate time difference between when you hear of a major discovery of oil, or when it starts flowing oil, is about six and a half years. Or, if you like, from the point when someone initiates a big project, to when it starts flowing is typically some five years plus, and tending to get longer as delays accumulate in the system. Now if we look at things like the OPEC website, we find that there's no declared projects over 2010, beyond 2010; there's a couple in Iran and that's it. Even if they know about it, if they haven't started appointing contractors, if they haven't started doing the engineering, one thing and another, then we're looking at the far side of 2012, because they will need four years from now and we're not that far off from being in 2008. We're already seeing sort of holes appear where there should be a project. If we look at the sort of non-OPEC projects coming up, they really thin off after about 2012, but we should be hearing about projects in 2013, we should probably be hearing about projects in 2014. There's quite literally only a couple that we know of. Additional emphasis mine.
A modest proposal from a guy who must count Jonathan Swift as an ancestor
That's it for now. More to come. Let's hope Dubya doesn't decide to play God and bomb Iran. All bets are off on peak oil and a recession if that happens.
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