You all know by now that the subject of Peak Oil can get me wound up tighter than a tick on a hound dog's ear. These past two-three weeks have really been eye-poppers.
Reader's Digest Condensed Version
1. 6/28/07 - We now have the full translated interview from Le Monde of Fatih Birol, the economist from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris. He speaks to supply problems in the near future.
2. 7/9/07 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its Medium Term Oil Market Report, which is reviewed by Jerome a Paris. IEA is conservative in its outlook, but they basically confirm Birol's comments, a tight market is in the offing. The original article can be purchased if you care to contact the IEA.
3. 7/18/07 - The National Petroleum Council, which is a mouthpiece for the petroleum industry, acknowledges trouble on the horizon in this report dated July 18, 2007. (PDF warning) Read the letter at the very beginning for the summary.
4. 7/19/07 - The Canadians are expecting $100/barrel oil in the near future. How near is that future? The Canadians think it is right around the corner. It appears that Goldman Sachs agrees.
The most significant criticism about the NPC report is that dodges the impact of its own conclusions. Many over at The Oil Drum, especially Stuart Staniford, are not happy with the NPC, although some acknowledge the movement of the organization toward recognition of the problem, even if the solutions turn out to be too little too late.
It's looking more and more as though we will continue to see tight oil and gas, with prices at the pump over $3/gallon henceforth. It's going to get worse in the very near term, and the fact that very conservative organizations are moving, even if slowly, in that direction is encouraging. However it is not enough. Somehow we have to convince our local leadership to start the risk analysis and determine the mitigations that will surely be needed to deal with Peak Oil. Whatever occurs in the next 2-4 years will be the opening salvo. If we don't act, aside from meaningless legislation to sue the Saudis or whomever, then we can kiss our collective backsides good bye.
1 comment:
It's ALREADY getting ugly.
The price of fuel might still be cheap relative to where it will be down the road a few years, but it is high enough even for non-car owners to feel the pinch, as the effects of utility rate hikes and rapidly escalating transportation costs are passed on to consumers in everything they buy, and cascade through the economy causing a geometric increase in the cost of living.
What will happen to food, heat, and other basic necessities when gasoline is at $5.50 or more a gallon?
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