Jerome a Paris, in an article for the European Tribune, quotes International Energy Agency (IEA) economist Fatih Birol on the state of the oil supply. The quote comes from a Le Monde interview (in French). Jerome helpfully provides a translation:
If Iraqi production does not rise exponentially by 2015, we have a very big problem, even if Saudi Arabia fulfills all its promises. The numbers are very simple, there's no need to be an expert.
There's more of course, and it is very depressing. Tell me again why we invaded Iraq? Guess it's time for me to start reading The Washington Post series on Cheney.
Meanwhile Keith Kohl is cheering high returns on Canadian oil sands while at the same time dropping bombs that should make us sit up and take notice:
First this:
Over 98% of Canada's natural gas is produced in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). But this basin peaked in 2000 and is now in serious decline. And despite record drilling activity during the first half of 2006, companies realized that they were unable to significantly boost production. This was evident from the lack of activity in the latter half of the year, which resulted in the overall decline of new gas wells completed for the entire year.
and then this:
We consume roughly a quarter of the world's natural gas. Our largest exporter is Canada. In 2001, Canada supplied us with over 94% of our natural gas imports. Last year, it sent us only 76% of our imports. That's a significant drop.
Unfortunately, natural gas is typically transported via pipeline in a regional market. This is forcing us to look elsewhere, such as doubling our liquefied natural gas imports within the last five years. These new sources are much costlier and will translate directly to higher prices.
US natural gas production is past peak, so we are reliant on imports. Tell me again how you heat your house and cook your food.
It's cars vs people, and that shouldn't surprise anyone given this president's commitment to ethanol as an alternative fuel.
James Kunstler comments on Jeffrey Brown's Export Land Model (ELM) and postulates that we are in trouble now whether we know it or not. Not to worry, the Canadians may rescue us if they can get their oilsands production even higher.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is is concerned about a possible world economic depression. The nerve of the BIS! When it happens Lyndon Larouche, 'the world's greatest economist', will make sure everyone knows he forecasted it first and that the BIS is just a bunch of Johnny-come-latelys to that dance. And that will be his kinder remarks!
1 comment:
Keith Kohls "oil play tbat returned 300%" is no doubt a reference to the stock price on one of the little NASDAQ-listed $3 a share oil stocks that go up and down like yo-yos and are so thinly traded that one broker buying 85,000 shares for his customers can make a diff in the price.
Don't confuse a 2 month run-up in a fad small stock with ERoEI. The tar sands are a total bust when it comes to the actual energy derived vs what is invested to extract the oil. People are pulling out. It is not working. Shale will be even worse- right now, from everything I've read and heard, the ERoEI for shale is negative.
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