When the USA Sneezes

Mexico catches a cold. Read carefully about the 3 legged stool that constitutes the Mexican economy;

1 - Oil - 37% of the federal revenue and will decline as Cantarell declines
2 - Exports - USA is a key partner and has bought less
3 - Remittances home from immigrants - has slowed to a trickle

Mexico's auto sector relies on Detroit, which has sited several factories there. American automakers are doing OK but not great, and Chrysler is exploring a relationship with GM.

At Gordon's coffee over at Jocelyn's I raised the issue of global events having a local impact. I specifically spoke to the possible blocking of the Straits of Hormuz should Bush bomb Iran. Mexico's economic situation could prove to be more immediate if the economy gets weaker and the pressure to come to El Norte for employment grows stronger.

It is fashionable right now to talk and think about the ward as it's own little atoll in the chain of wards that make up Chicago. The emphasis appears to be on getting an alderman who will focus on ward issues alone. Bloggers point at JoMo's foie gras caper (and with good reason) as an example of an out of touch alderman. I would argue that JoMo picked the wrong issue to hang his political capital on. The mayor and the council have a joint responsibility to plan and prepare for events that occur outside of Chicago, but will affect the city and its population. It's a matter of Think Global - Act Local.

If Mexicans start streaming across the border, some number will find their way here. Are we ready for that?

If Bush bombs Iran and the Iranians sink ships in the Straits, cutting off 20% of the world's oil from the markets (there is no capacity in any pipeline to transport it elsewhere), we will feel the economic impact along with the rest of the country. Are we ready for that?

More importantly, are you ready to vote for an alderman who isn't even thinking about that?