Sunday, January 21, 2007
Canada and Natural Gas
I comment so much on Peak Oil that we lose sight of natural gas. Touring sites I haven't paid enough attention to brought me to this article about an expected drop in Canadian NG exports. This is due to the economics of drilling for NG, and the article lays it out very nicely. But consider this, 50% of Canada's NG comes to us. That could change if Canada needs to keep more gas to herself, whatever the reason. You'll note the expected impact on prices with just this adjustment. When NG peaks, about 10 years after PO, we can expect more serious adjustments to occur.
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Some experts believe that natural gas will peak sooner than that.
The situation is ominous for Chicago, which is very gas-dependent and is stuffed with ultra-high skyscrapers. By ultra-high I mean 30 stories or more.
We need to revisit electric heat. There have been great strides made in improving the efficiency of electric furnaces, and I'm doing research to see just how much difference there is in the cost of operating an electric boiler rather than a gas one, for a large building. Right now it seems unfavorable, but that is because gas is still relatively cheap and plentiful.
This means people refuse to think outside the usual paradigm and consider that even though electric may be more expensive now, and still more so down the road, it may be all we have. Gas wells stop producing very suddenly.
I like the idea of of net-grid solar powered generators for large apt bldgs and even SF homes. It is, however, much more economical for a 40-unit bldg. With a net-grid system, you then take the bldg totally electric. You might as well- you need electricity for your gas furnace to work, anyway.
We, as a city, need to seriously work on a plan to reduce our dependence on natural gas.
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