Bully Pulpits

The great thing about technology is that it allows each of us to be heard, assuming anyone is listening. Peak Oil has become my issue, and I do want to know what the candidates think. I don't have a good email address for Don Gordon or Mike Harrington. What I have to say is not conducive to website addys, especially since I am attaching 2 files. Here's the text of the letter and perhaps someone from the Gordon campaign will get in touch with me so I can include Don in the conversation. Then again, he may decide he is better off staying out of it.

Greetings - Joe, Chris and Jim

If, as alderman, you knew for a fact that during this term the world’s production of oil would begin an inexorable and permanent decline (Peak Oil), unabated by any future discoveries, resulting in demand outpacing supply and the consequent impact on the economy, what would you do to prepare your ward and the City of Chicago? Consider these facts:

- On January 10, 2007 the U.S. Senate’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee conducted a 2-hour hearing on the “Geopolitics of Oil.” The expert witnesses came from the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Paris-based International Energy Administration (IEA). The witnesses agreed, and the Senators were informed, that the notion of “energy independence is a myth,” and that the US will require fossil fuels for the foreseeable future.

- 75% of the world’s conventional oil reserves are owned by National Oil Companies in OPEC, Norway, Britain, and others. These are state-owned reserves.

- The USA consumes ~21 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil, which is 25% of the world’s total consumption.

- 60% of the oil consumed by the USA is imported. That percentage will continue to rise over time.

- ~70% of the oil being used by the US is in the transportation sector, 22% in manufacturing, and 8% in heating (natural gas is the primary fuel for heating and electricity in the USA, followed by coal and nuclear).

Fossil fuels are a finite resource that will eventually be depleted. Peak Oil, as it is known, is anticipated in as little as 2 years, or as much as 10. The exact date cannot be predicted and is tied to many variables over which we have no control. However, consider this:

- PEMEX, the Mexican oil company, has reported that the Cantarell field, which has been producing up to 3.3 mbpd, will begin a production decline commencing in 2007. A reduction of up to 800K bpd is expected by 2008. PEMEX does not have the funds or expertise to explore potential new fields in the Gulf of Mexico and is barred by the Mexican constitution from partnering with the international oil companies.

- The North Sea fields have entered a production decline resulting in Britain resuming oil imports after 20 years of independence. Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) efforts are underway and may stem the imports for a few years, before they resume again.

- The Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, the largest known oil field in the world, is currently pumping 1 barrel of seawater for every 2 barrels of oil. The information was obtained informally, as Saudi Aramco does not provide consistent or transparent public information. The amount of water being pumped has likely increased, as the initial report is at least 2-3 years old and Aramco has taken aggressive steps to recover oil from Ghawar. The Kingdom has 25% of the world’s estimated reserves, and Ghawar represents 60% of the Saudi total.

- In September 2006, Chevron reported the successful drilling of the Jack-2 oil well in the Gulf of Mexico, the deepest and most technologically challenging accomplishment in the industry. However, the well was capped and is unlikely to be developed for production due to the development costs involved and the price of oil at this time. It is not economically feasible to proceed, and the amount of potential reserves is unknown. Estimates range from 3-15 billion barrels, or 0.5-2 years worth of US oil consumption.

- The 2004 corn and soybean crops, had they been converted entirely to biofuels, would have offset ~ 3% of the oil consumed in the US. It is unlikely that biofuels will substantially replace oil. We cannot ‘farm’ our way out of Peak Oil.

- It is estimated that coal can supply our energy needs (generating electricity) for 200 years. If it is redirected to a coal-to-oil program, the estimate drops to a range of 45-85 years. The available coal is lignite, which is harder to mine and dirtier than anthracite, which has peaked.

Dr. Robert Hirsch of SAIC (Science Applications International Corp.) led a team that wrote a white paper for DOE, published in February 2005, directly addressing the risks and mitigation associated with the decline of oil production. He concluded that a crash program would be needed, requiring political leadership, trillions of dollars, and 20 years lead time to mitigate the potential fuel shortages and the resulting shocks to the economy. I have attached his report.

The City of Portland has taken the first steps to address the impact of Peak Oil on the community. The attached report provides a useful guide that could be utilized by the City of Chicago to undertake a similar analysis to develop and implement pertinent recommendations to mitigate Peak Oil’s impact. I urge you to read this document and consider what steps the City needs to undertake in advance of Peak Oil, and to mitigate its effects as they occur. The ongoing lack of federal and state leadership cannot be used as an excuse not to act. The consequences, as Portland notes, are potentially severe.

I realize that you have many priorities to consider, but consider this: routinely including consideration of Peak Oil as we develop and implement improvements to the ward and to Chicago will do more to ensure a bright future for your constituents than if you simply wait and act after Peak Oil occurs.

I will be interested in your perspective at the upcoming candidate forums.

We'll see if this leads anywhere.