Monday, January 29, 2007

As Mexico Goes, So Goes.....?

Back in 2004 Business Week was sounding the alarm about PEMEX and Cantarell. The warning bell was rung again in 2005 by the International Herald Tribune. PEMEX has potential new fields to pursue, but so far lacks the resources to do more than explore. Any fields that are put under development will take years to bring to full production.

Peak Oil may be a hard nut to crack, but the fact that Cantarell's decline was written up in the mainstream media and ignored (likely because it wasn't an immediate problem) does not bode well for Peak Oil or Peak Natural Gas. We will buy ourselves out of the loss of Mexican oil, but what will we do when more immigrants show up after the Mexican economy goes soft? Global climate change and the realization that we need to wean ourselves off imported oil may prove to be catalysts for change, but I wonder if it will be enough to get this country seriously moving to alternatives.

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