This link takes you to The Hirsch Report (Adobe Reader required) written by Robert Hirsch of SAIC. It is a well researched, and very sobering, analysis of peak oil and three possible scenarios of the impact if mitigation is not in place. The report was written for the Department of Energy.
In essence, the report styles itself as an analysis of the risks and the mitigations that can be taken. Although the body of the report sidesteps the question of 'when', the Appendix does include a statement that 2016 is a likely date based on avaible data. It recognizes that the data may be faulty, given the political realities underlying some the reporting done by oil producing countries.
For those of you without Adobe, an HTML version.