Tighten your Seatbelts...

It's going to be a bumpy century.

I got hold of a book titled The Long Emergency, by James Howard Kunstler. Kunstler isn't shy, and I don't agree with his analysis of what is behind the jihadists. However, he has a very cogent point to make, one that most Americans don't want to hear -- the demand for oil exceeds the supply we can rationally pump and refine; there is a gap and we will have to change our way of life to survive. I said Americans, but that statement applies to anyone who is addicted to oil, which is pretty much the entire developed world, although Americans do have the edge in consumption.

Petroleum just doesn't fuel planes, trains, and automobiles; it is a key input to much of what we take for granted, especially plastics and their relatives. Petroleum is the foundation of our economies and way of life. When it is gone, they will crumble too, unless we plan now and start putting alternatives into place. The problem is, even though the oil companies do know the truth, we aren't being honest with ourselves and so we aren't acting at all.

Let gasoline reach $3/gallon in the US, or higher, and the squaks are heard 'round the world. We look to Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico to "end America's dependence on foriegn oil" without ever realizing that we are never going to break that dependency. American domestic oil production peaked around 1970. The North Slope discoveries and the recent discovery of more oil in the Gulf of Mexico will never bring us back to that level. America's reserves amount to about 4 years of oil, based on current consumption, which is likely to increase. The new Gulf field, if actually put into production, will produce about 2 years of oil based on current consumption.

On top of that, the easiest oil to refine into the products we care about (fuel being number one) is called light sweet crude, meaning it is low in sulfur. Heavy sour crude, which is starting to appear in our imports, is much more expensive to refine due to its high sulfur content. Once that dominates the production in the refineries (which requires adjustments to the refining process) the era of cheap gas will be over for America. The days of $3/gallon will look like a bargain.

The wolf is at the door folks, it's just a matter of time before he breaks it down. Yet our leaders are nowhere to be found. Rather than tackle the issue, they look for bandaids; increased fuel economy and hybrids. There is no real effort that I can see to come up with transportation alternatives because no one is taking the long view and considering what this means.

Look at the numbers again. If America only has 4 years of oil in reserve, and only 2 years of new oil in the Gulf, and perhaps a few years of oil sitting in Alaska, just who are we kidding when we talk about weaning ourselves from foriegn oil? And if that oil becomes harder to get to, for political reasons, what makes you think our fearless leaders won't create a war to go after it? Or maybe we really did do that when we invaded Iraq. Regardless, we aren't making the structural changes necessary and Big Oil isn't going to go shouting about this issue from the rooftops because they are in this game for money.

There is an old saying that America gets the President (and leadership I might add) that it deserves. Unfortunately, it's going to cost us in the long run and in ways we don't want to think about.

I don't expect our aldermanic candidates to have a position on this, but I do think their views on the long term growth of Chicago and public transportation would be an appropriate place to start.